743
FXUS61 KRLX 052352
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
752 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AS 00Z APPROACHED.
240 PM UPDATE...
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
ADDED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN OH COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN KY FOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED DOWN SOME. FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HAS LESSENED SOME.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
FRIDAY. FROST CONCERNS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF
THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
REINTRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ROUNDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING TO
CONVECTIVE MODELS, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN
1.00" AND 1.50" WITH HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND
STORMS DUE TO SLOW COLD FRONT AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOTION.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IS
VERY LOW TO NONEXISTENT.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO COUNTIES AND CARTER AND
GREENUP COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY. MOSTLY, FOR THE INITIAL FORCED ROUND
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THAT COULD PRODUCE UP TO 0.30" OF RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT
OTHERWISE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH WATER ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA.
OUR AREA, MINUS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO, IS UNDER MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT, SO RAINFALL IS NEEDED.
MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BY MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE SLACKING OFF AND THERE
MAY BE A BREAK IN RAINFALL COVERAGE UNTIL MORE SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND OUR VIRGINIA
COUNTIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A STRONGER
STORM MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES GIVEN ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OVERALL, A SOLID 0.50" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME OUTLIERS
CLOSER TO AN INCH POSSIBLE, MOSTLY ACROSS THE COALFIELDS AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE
LOWLANDS WILL DROP FROM THE 70S INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 50S
FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 36-38
DEGREE RANGE. THIS RAISES A CONCERN FOR FROST FORMATION WITH
ONE CAVEAT BEING POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES
ON SATURDAY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CURRENTLY THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS
LOW.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WAVY COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT,
BEFORE CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR ON VISIBILITY
OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, AND
THEN ON CEILING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE RAIN AND WITH AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AND MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDER AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT INTO MVFR ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS
OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT BKW, WHERE MVFR VISIBILITY
AND IFR CEILING IN RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THEN
NORTHWEST AND INITIALLY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO
INDUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER TOP OF THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT, AND THEN BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. PRESENCE, TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
LLWS TONIGHT MAY VARY. IMPROVEMENT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS MAY LINGER IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...TRM
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