146
FXUS61 KRLX 070706
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
306 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING DRIER TODAY AS SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST
2) COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND SEVERAL MORE TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT TODAY, AS THE COLD FRONT, AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH, CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
TODAY WILL BE COOL, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW CALM WINDS CAN
GO.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE REGION, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PARTS OF THE MID OHIO VALLEY, EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WV,
THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z OR SOONER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SITES MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENTS THURSDAY MAY BE FASTER OR
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/07/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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