128
FXUS61 KRLX 070944
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
544 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
540 AM UPDATED AVIATION.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING DRIER TODAY AS SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST
2) COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND SEVERAL MORE TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT TODAY, AS THE COLD FRONT, AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH, CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
TODAY WILL BE COOL, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW CALM WINDS CAN
GO.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE REGION, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONTINUES TO LINGER, MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AREA WIDE BY 16-18Z.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, GENERALLY LIGHT, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE GENERALLY 18Z TO 23Z.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THURSDAY MAY BE FASTER
OR SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L H H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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