980
FXUS61 KRLX 071807
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING DRIER TODAY AS SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST
2) COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND SEVERAL MORE TO ROUND
OUT THE EXTENDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT TODAY, AS THE COLD FRONT, AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH, CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
TODAY WILL BE COOL, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW CALM WINDS CAN
GO.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE REGION, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
BKN DIURNAL CU (040-070) WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE
EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS LEADS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND
EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AT
CRW/EKN. FOG THEN LIFTS/DISSIPATES BY ~1230Z, WITH VFR AREA-
WIDE THEREAFTER AMID CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
WITH BREEZES OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY CENTRAL/NORTH).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG TONIGHT, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ028-030>032-039-040-515>522-524-525.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL/GW
AVIATION...GW
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