744
FXUS61 KRLX 071908
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWLANDS, WITH A SPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHILLY TONIGHT, WITH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WITH A SPS
ACROSS MOST OTHER ZONES.
2) WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT TIMES, PRIMARILY ON FRIDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS. COOLER FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATE ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE
EVENING LEADING TO A CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO RELATIVELY CALM
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVERNIGHT AMID DRIER LOW-LEVELS COURTESY OF
DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE LOW-LEVELS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE MIXED LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO, DO ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SUCH, DID TWEAK OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE, WITH 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCLUDING THE LOWLAND RIDGES. UPPER 20S COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GIVEN SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWLAND ZONES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS IS HIGHEST. PATCHY FROST COULD ALSO OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS IN THE TYPICAL VALLEY COLD SPOTS, WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, SOME RIVER
VALLEY STEAM FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV, GREATLY LIMITING ANY FROST
POTENTIAL WHERE IT DOES FORM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN
RETURN FLOW AND A GRADUAL WARMUP FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RISING A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
WEAK CROSSING DISTURBANCE, THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER AND BENEFICIAL SIDE, GENERALLY
RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AN INCH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING), WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
FAVORED CENTRAL/NORTH. SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER WEATHER THEN
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
BKN DIURNAL CU (040-070) WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE
EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS LEADS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND
EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AT
CRW/EKN. FOG THEN LIFTS/DISSIPATES BY ~1230Z, WITH VFR AREA-
WIDE THEREAFTER AMID CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
WITH BREEZES OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY CENTRAL/NORTH).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG TONIGHT, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ028-030>032-039-040-515>522-524-525.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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