315
FXUS61 KRLX 072338
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
738 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
440 PM UPDATE... EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT. PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION FROM THE
COLD TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHILLY TONIGHT, WITH FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WITH A SPS
ACROSS MOST OTHER ZONES.
2) WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT TIMES, PRIMARILY ON FRIDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS. COOLER FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
LATE ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE
EVENING LEADING TO A CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO RELATIVELY CALM
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVERNIGHT AMID DRIER LOW-LEVELS COURTESY OF
DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE LOW-LEVELS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE MIXED LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO, DO ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SUCH, DID TWEAK OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE, WITH 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCLUDING THE LOWLAND RIDGES. UPPER 20S COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GIVEN SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWLAND ZONES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS IS HIGHEST. PATCHY FROST COULD ALSO OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS IN THE TYPICAL VALLEY COLD SPOTS, WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, SOME RIVER
VALLEY STEAM FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV, GREATLY LIMITING ANY FROST
POTENTIAL WHERE IT DOES FORM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN
RETURN FLOW AND A GRADUAL WARMUP FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RISING A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN, PRIMARILY ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
WEAK CROSSING DISTURBANCE, THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER AND BENEFICIAL SIDE, GENERALLY
RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AN INCH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING), WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
FAVORED CENTRAL/NORTH. SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER WEATHER THEN
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET, AND
WINDS WILL THEN TURN CALM OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT IFR
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AT KEKN BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD OCCUR AT A FEW OF
THE OTHER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>522-524-525.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...GW/26
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page