081
FXUS61 KRLX 080606
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
206 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES OVER THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WITH PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING. FROST/FREEZE THREAT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FROST AND PATCHY FREEZE THIS MORNING.
2. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC LIGHT
SHOWERS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, ACROSS
THE BROADER AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
3. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ARRIVING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION, SUPPORTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD
AIR DRAINAGE AWAY FROM MAJOR RIVERS. WHILE A DECK OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO MAY LOCALLY INHIBIT FURTHER
COOLING, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. EXISTING FROST PRODUCTS
REMAIN WELL-PLACED TO HANDLE THIS THREAT TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION
THROUGH MID-MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, MAINTAINING A
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
SERIES OF WEAK, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW,
BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH (PERHAPS JUST
OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA) THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS HEAVILY
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION EVEN IF THESE SHOWERS STRAY INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA.
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MEAGER,
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES REMAINING
GENERALLY BELOW 200 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT. TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT AGAIN, CHANCES SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARE
LACKING DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. THIS SETUP STRONGLY FAVORS AGGRESSIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 30S WITH DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY BELOW FREEZING. AREAS
SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE COULD EASILY DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS, PRESENTING A CREDIBLE THREAT FOR LATE-
SEASON FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY
FOG, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KEKN AND MANIFEST NEAR KCRW PRIOR
TO 12Z. ANY FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FT
AGL. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NORTHERN TERMINALS
INCLUDING KCKB AND KPKB AFTER 18Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 8
TO 12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS OR
LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT
CRW/EKN MORE THAN ADVERTISED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/08/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>522-524-525.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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