881
FXUS61 KRLX 082322
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK.
2. COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND
FREEZE WEATHER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO
IMPACT THE AREA WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED STORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
A WETTING RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP DUE TO THE
CURRENT DROUGHT STATUS THAT WE ARE IN. ANY RAIN AT THIS POINT
WILL BE BENEFICIAL, HOWEVER WILL UNLIKELY MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES
IN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN PLACE.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN
NATURE, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
THE MAIN THEME. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN TO THE AREA.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS OF NOW, HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM
BY MIDWEEK GAINS STRENGTH IN THE MODELS, WE COULD POTENTIALLY
HAVE SOME STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY THEN WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS IN STORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR TUESDAY MORNING, FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED. PARTS OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FROST AS WELL BUT NOT THE ENTIRE LOWLANDS JUST SOME AREAS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
TO PROMOTE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT OF FROST AND FREEZE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY IN THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT, BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE, BUT THEY
SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHT. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE
PACKAGES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES, BUT FOR NOW, WE JUST WENT WITH
VCSH FOR MOST TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AN ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BRIEFLY SATURDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page