495
FXUS61 KRLX 092337
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 735 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING VERY
LIGHT.
2. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
3. LATE SEASON FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS.
4. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA OUT TOWARD THE
EAST AND WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE AND THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW, HOWEVER IF ACTIVITY OCCURS THEY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE. CLOUDS THEN CLEAR OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND CHANCES FOR
VALLEY FOG MAY BECOME APPARENT WHERE AREAS DECOUPLE. OUTSIDE THE
VALLEYS SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM
FORMING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN A MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST SHEAR AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA. SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY EXITS BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE REST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT AFFECT THE
DROUGHT STATUS AT ALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE A COOLER START TO THE NEW WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTIES JUST OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR
AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW FROST TO DEVELOP OVR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND ALSO PROMOTE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS IT IS
POSSIBLE TO HAVE PATCHY FROST IN AREAS OF KNOWN COLD SPOTS OR IN
DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS. THIS POTENTIAL COULD THREATEN
SENSITIVE VEGETATION IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS BY MIDWEEK AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES TOWARD THE AREA AND IMPACTS US WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONGER
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH A MORE
MOISTURE FLUX AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AND
CURRENTLY BREEZY WINDS WILL TURN CALM OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. ADDED VCTS INTO THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING VISIBILITY DOWN TO IFR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE IT PREVIOUSLY RAINED TODAY, BUT
THE CHANCE IS LOW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...26
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