153
FXUS61 KRLX 100620
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVING ATOP THE FRONTAL
ZONE INTO MONDAY MORNING. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT
LESSENED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
2. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
3. FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS,
WHICH COULD IMPACT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
4. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOTHER'S DAY WILL START OFF DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
BRUSHING BY OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM
STRENGTH. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS IS
PRESENT, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 400 TO 600 J/KG,
EVEN IN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THIS LACK OF ROBUST
BUOYANCY WILL STUNT UPDRAFT GROWTH, KEEPING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOW. WIND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND
THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT, A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL ZONE, PROVIDING ENOUGH LOCALIZED FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH MAY
ALSO YIELD A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BEFORE DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY FILTERS IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES, WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WHERE A FREEZE IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GENERALLY
IN THE 30S OR LOWER 40S WITH LOCATIONS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR
DRAINAGE SLIPPING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT THAT SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON TO JUSTIFY HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. UNDER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DRY CONDITIONS, MOST GUIDANCE TENDS TO
BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM-BIASED. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE TO PROTECT VULNERABLE PLANTS AND THOSE
WHO USE MOTHER'S DAY AS THE TRADITIONAL PLANTING DATE MAY WANT
TO WAIT A COUPLE MORE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER,
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
RECOVER. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE DEGREE OF DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A LARGER PATTERN SHIFT
BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN US RIDGE, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BRUSH BY PKB/CKB AND POSSIBLY EKN THIS
MORNING WITH A BROKEN LINE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SOME CONVECTION IS
ADVERTISED BY THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE IN PROB30 GROUPS.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, TURNING NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10KTS BEHIND IT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING NEAR EKN/CRW AND MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE FIELDS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/10/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/STRATUS MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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