825
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
228 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN WV, AND SOUTHEAST OH MAY
EXPERIENCE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH A MID WEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ON MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS CALM AND SKIES CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD FACILITATE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S TO 40S, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN WV, AND SOUTHEAST OH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS HIGHEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA REINTRODUCES
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT STEERS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SOUNDINGS
CURRENTLY PROJECT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN REGAINS CONTROL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY,
THOUGH BRIEF MVFR/IFR COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS ACCOMPANYING A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
AREAS OF FOG, LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, AND POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS TO 20S POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FLOW BECOMES CALM TO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CARRIES OVER
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG, LOW CLOUDS, AND PRECIPITATION TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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