178
FXUS61 KRLX 102349
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
749 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
745 PM UPDATE... AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE OF MOISTURE RIDING UP ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, PROVIDING ONE LAST SURGE
OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COALFIELDS UP INTO THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE AND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH.
228 PM UPDATE... A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN WV, AND SOUTHEAST OH MAY
EXPERIENCE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH A MID WEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ON MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS CALM AND SKIES CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD FACILITATE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S TO 40S, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN WV, AND SOUTHEAST OH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS HIGHEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA REINTRODUCES
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT STEERS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SOUNDINGS
CURRENTLY PROJECT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN REGAINS CONTROL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A COLD FRONT. AT THE TIME OF WRITING, THE CORRIDOR
OF ACTIVITY HAD SLIPPED SOUTH OF CRW AND EKN AND HEADING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BKW. SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS WILL FESTER INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, AND COULD IMPOSE SUB-
VFR AT TIMES AT CRW, EKN, AND CKB. OTHER ITEM OF NOTE WAS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT PKB MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE GUIDANCE WASN'T TOO KEEN ON THIS POSSIBILITY, LINGERING
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW
COULD BOLSTER SOME SUNRISE FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH
ONE LAST PUSH OF SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO BKW.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THIS PORTION
OF THE AREA INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE IMPROVING UNDER THE
GUISE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. POST-FRONTAL NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG, LOW CLOUDS, AND PRECIPITATION TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/20
AVIATION...05
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