917
FXUS61 KRLX 110521
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
120 PM UPDATE... AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
745 PM UPDATE... AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STILL ANTICIPATE A WAVE OF MOISTURE RIDING UP ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, PROVIDING ONE LAST SURGE
OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COALFIELDS UP INTO THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE AND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH.
228 PM UPDATE... A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN WV, AND SOUTHEAST OH MAY
EXPERIENCE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH A MID WEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ON MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS CALM AND SKIES CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD FACILITATE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S TO 40S, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN WV, AND SOUTHEAST OH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS HIGHEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA REINTRODUCES
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT STEERS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SOUNDINGS
CURRENTLY PROJECT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN REGAINS CONTROL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH,
BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND UP THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY AS FAR NORTH AS HTS, CRW AND EVEN UP TO EKN. BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN FEW-SCT 2500-3000 FEET NOTED AT
CRW AND BKW, AND BKW IS LIKELY TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS DURING AND
FOLLOWING RAIN SHOWERS THERE, 09-16Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH A HIGH-BASED
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DECK.
SOMEWHAT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BRING A MORE STOUT BUT
STILL HIGH STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING,
WHEN A SPRINKLE OR EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT.
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE WAS POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AT PKB MONDAY MORNING. WHILE GUIDANCE WASN'T TOO KEEN ON THIS
POSSIBILITY, LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW COULD BOLSTER SOME SUNRISE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
LIGHT NORTH SURFACE FLOW THROUGH TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG, LOW CLOUDS, AND PRECIPITATION TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
FORMING AT PKB TOWARD DAYBREAK.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/11/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M L M M M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/20
AVIATION...TRM
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