901
FXUS61 KRLX 110952
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
552 AM UPDATE... 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
307 AM UPDATE... THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT HAS
LESSENED SLIGHTLY, AND, IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST, HAVE HELD OFF ON UPGRADING THE FREEZE WATCH
FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND ON FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCES.
A STOUT WARM-UP IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A DISTURBANCE BRINGS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- 2) PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN WV, AND EAST-CENTRAL
OHIO MAY EXPERIENCE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- 3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
- 4) WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT
SLIPPING THROUGH AND OUT OF FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WAS BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO AND
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE FROM FROM THE HUNTINGTON
TRI-STATE AREA AND HUNTINGTON-CHARLESTON CORRIDOR UP TO THE
ELKINS AREA, THE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THERE.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE HUNTINGTON TRI-STATE TO
ELKINS AREA BY DAWN, AND SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY NOON TODAY, AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD IN ITS WAKE.
A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EVEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDINESS, EVEN SPRINKLES OR
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE SCOOTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT. OF THE CAMS, ONLY
THE NAMNEST SHOWS ANY QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT, AND
EVEN THAT IS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND
PRECIPITATION HAS SO FAR NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 1 MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. IT IS PRIMARILY IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
FEATURE THAT FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL EXISTS. THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER, BETTER-SHELTERED
ELEVATED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND THE FROST POTENTIAL
LIMITED TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND BETTER-
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS.
AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY WIND AT
ALL WILL KEEP THE HIGHER RIDGES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. ON THE
OTHER HAND, DECOUPLING AND, EVENTUALLY, CLEAR SKY, SHOULD ALLOW
THE NORMALLY COLDER, BETTER-SHELTERED VALLEYS TO COOL BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE VALUES.
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, HAVE
HELD OFF ON UPGRADING THE FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND ON ANY FROST ADVISORY ISSUANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
REINTRODUCES RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
STEERS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING, AND THEN TREKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS UNFAVORABLE TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THE TRICK OF THE TALE IS THAT THIS LINE GETS
OUT AHEAD OF THE SUPPORTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT.
IF IT DOES SO QUICKLY ENOUGH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RECOVERY FOR
DESTABILIZATION, ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A SECOND
LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF BUT CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN
POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG. THIS PUTS THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO THE EAST WHERE RECOVERY WOULD BE
LATER/LESS.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BECOME LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH. THE SHORT WAVE CLOSES OFF INTO A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND LINGERS CLOSE BY ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, GIVEN
DAYTIME HEATING OF ELEVATED SURFACES BENEATH THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT, ALL BENEATH A STOUT MID-LEVEL INVERSION ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REGAINS CONTROL FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST IS POSSIBLE, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, NEXT KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE THAT SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY, AS AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS COMMENCES A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH, BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
START THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS, A LARGER, MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, PUSHING THE STATIONARY FRONT
NORTHWARD, AS A WARM FRONT. AS SUCH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY, AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO INCREASINGLY UNSEASONABLY HIGH
LEVELS.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH,
BRINGING RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND UP THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
IFR IN RAIN AT BKW WILL EXIT 14-16Z. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY AS FAR NORTH AS HTS, CRW AND EKN MOVE AWAY FROM THOSE
LOCATIONS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST, 12-13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH
A HIGH-BASED FEW-SCT CUMULUS DECK.
SOMEWHAT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BRING A MORE STOUT BUT
STILL HIGH STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING,
WHEN A SPRINKLE OR EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT.
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE WAS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE MVFR MIST IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
08-12Z, BUT THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE IFR OR LOWER AND FARTHER
WEST.
LIGHT NORTH SURFACE FLOW THROUGH TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT BKW COULD
VARY EARLY THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR LATER THIS MORNING. EXTENT OF VALLEY FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD VARY, INCLUDING LOWER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M L M H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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