733
FXUS61 KRLX 111723
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
3) DRY, WITH EARLY MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY. UNSETTLED AND TRENDING MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE, THOUGH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
WHERE WINDS CALM AND SKIES CLEAR, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST AND FREEZE TO
DEVELOP -- PARTICULARLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER, LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS AND LIGHT FLOW PERSIST SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE A FREEZE WARNING COVERS SOUTHEAST
RANDOLPH AND NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A QUIET TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT LOW TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPROUT UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
EXIT BY MID AFTERNOON, THEN A SECONDARY LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LESSENED IF THERE IS NO BREAK
BETWEEN THE EARLIER ACTIVITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT DEPARTS, THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREND MUCH WARMER, WITH SUMMER-LIKE HIGHS
ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH SOME CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS
OF RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHEREVER FOG FORMS, THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR AROUND 12-14Z TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY. LOW FOR FOG TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF VALLEY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT COULD VARY, INCLUDING LOWER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ520-522-
524-525.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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