931
FXUS61 KRLX 120528
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
750 PM UPDATE...
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
123 PM UPDATE...
A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
3) DRY, WITH EARLY MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY. UNSETTLED AND TRENDING MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW CLOUDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE, THOUGH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
WHERE WINDS CALM AND SKIES CLEAR, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST AND FREEZE TO
DEVELOP -- PARTICULARLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER, LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS AND LIGHT FLOW PERSIST SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE A FREEZE WARNING COVERS SOUTHEAST
RANDOLPH AND NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A QUIET TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE PARENT LOW TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPROUT UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
EXIT BY MID AFTERNOON, THEN A SECONDARY LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LESSENED IF THERE IS NO BREAK
BETWEEN THE EARLIER ACTIVITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT DEPARTS, THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREND MUCH WARMER, WITH SUMMER-LIKE HIGHS
ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING, EXCEPT LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST AT PKB, WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING, AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DRIFTS NORTH.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET, AND
THEN LIGHT SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ALOFT ALREADY FARTHER NORTH, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER
TODAY, BEFORE INCREASING TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LOW SHOULD
BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY, AND CONFINE FOG TO THE BETTER SHELTERED DEEPER
VALLEYS FARTHER EAST. THIS LIMITS FOG TO 6SM BR FEW001/2 MIST AT
CRW AND CKB 09-12Z, BUT 1/2SM FG OVC001 VLIFR DENSE FOG IS
CODED UP FOR EKN 09-12Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT
SHOULD PRECLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE, ONCE ANY
FOG THIS MORNING IS GONE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND TIMING OF VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ520-522-524-
525.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/20
AVIATION...TRM
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