663
FXUS61 KRLX 121752
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STILL HINGES ON THE TIMING OF
AN EARLIER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
2) EARLY MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, THEN
TRENDING MUCH WARMER AMID AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN PROCEEDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
IF A LONG ENOUGH BREAK OCCURS BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND
ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY, INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S FRONT, THOUGH WINDS
AND SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM
FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE DOES, HOWEVER, PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM FLOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND INITIATES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH SUMMER-
LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ALSO REEMERGE AT
TIMES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND, AND A FRONT
APPROACHING ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN CEILINGS
BEGIN TO LOWER AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
MAY OCCUR WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT, THEN STRENGTHEN AND PIVOT BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS MAY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. A PERIOD OF LLWS COULD OCCUR BEFORE GUSTS
PICK UP IN THE MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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