750
FXUS61 KRLX 130005
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
152 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STILL HINGES ON THE TIMING OF
AN EARLIER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
2) EARLY MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, THEN
TRENDING MUCH WARMER AMID AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN PROCEEDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
IF A LONG ENOUGH BREAK OCCURS BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND
ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY, INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S FRONT, THOUGH WINDS
AND SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM
FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE DOES, HOWEVER, PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM FLOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND INITIATES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH SUMMER-
LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ALSO REEMERGE AT
TIMES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND, AND A FRONT
APPROACHING ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING, BUT WILL BECOME INTERRUPTED
BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE
TIME OF WRITING, A STRIP OF SHOWERS DENOTING THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH
ANTICIPATION OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST LINE OF
ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO SLIP DOWN INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z, FOLLOWED BY A STRIP OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
THE EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE VEERING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE
IN THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
NEARING 20 TO 25KTS WERE INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES. LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED AT THE AIRFIELD IN THE EVENT OF A
A STORM PASSING OVERHEAD. ALSO MADE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS AT CRW BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MORE AIRFIELDS THAN JUST CRW
COULD OCCUR BEFORE GUSTS PICK UP IN THE MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/20
AVIATION...05
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