649
FXUS61 KRLX 130600
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
805 PM UPDATE...
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
152 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STILL HINGES ON THE TIMING OF
AN EARLIER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
2) EARLY MORNING FROST POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, THEN
TRENDING MUCH WARMER AMID AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN PROCEEDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
IF A LONG ENOUGH BREAK OCCURS BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND
ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY, INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S FRONT, THOUGH WINDS
AND SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM
FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE DOES, HOWEVER, PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM FLOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND INITIATES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH SUMMER-
LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ALSO REEMERGE AT
TIMES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND, AND A FRONT
APPROACHING ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INTERRUPTED BY AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AND LATER THIS MORNING FARTHER EAST.
TWO LINES OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST LINE OF ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO SLIP DOWN INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. IT MAY STILL
HAVE THUNDER IN IT AS IT APPROACHES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING,
BUT ANY THUNDER SHOULD WANE AS THE ACTIVITY TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS, AND INTO TH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT FROM THIS LINE IS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN.
A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS
FROM THE FIRST LINE IN TERMS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR VISIBILITY
IN RAIN WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS SECOND LINE AS WELL, ALONG WITH
VCTS. HOWEVER, A DIRECT IMPACT OF A STRONGER, HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO MVFR
CEILING, ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PICK UP AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, AND THEN
VEER TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND THIS
EVENING EAST. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TODAY
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND FOR A SHORT TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT, BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY INDUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVER TOP THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING,
BEFORE MIXING THROUGH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
ALOFT LATE TODAY WEST AND THIS EVENING EAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PRECIPITATION TIMING AND IMPACTS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST TODAY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, MAINLY ON CEILING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/20
AVIATION...TRM
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