124
FXUS61 KRLX 130721
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
321 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OR WITH
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL HINGES ON THE TIMING OF AN
EARLIER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO
CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
FROM ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER EASTWARD, THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- 2) COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STOUT WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
FROM ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER EASTWARD, THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND UPON RECOVERY IN
TERMS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ACTUALLY EXITS WITH AN INITIAL SHORT
WAVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE BEING REINVIGORATED OVER THE
AREA BY A SECOND, DIGGING SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL OUT AHEAD OF
IT, A SECOND BAND IS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG/NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON, AND TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
IT IS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION THAT CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF WE COULD
REALIZE CLOSE TO A KJ/KG OF CAPE, THE COMBINATION OF IT AND
AROUND 50 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
SUPPORT MINIMALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, HAIL CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT, AND SOME LOW LEVEL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW WITH HEIGHT COULD ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN STRONGER
CORES.
THE PARENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO INDUCE LOW TOP
CONVECTION IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY, BUT THE MID LEVEL INVERSION BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE EAST IS LIKELY TO BE TOO LOW TO ALLOW
ICE IN CLOUD, AND THUS CHARGE SEPARATION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT ANY CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE FLEETING, AND
SUNSHINE THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM
WILL BRING ABOUT A NOTICEABLY COOLER AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, AND
THEN A MAINLY CLEAR, CALM AND COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE FARTHER FROM THE AREA, AND, AFTER BRINGING ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD TO PRECLUDE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN FROST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, IT MAY LEAVE ENOUGH WIND AND PATCHY CLOUD IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO AGAIN LIMIT, BUT NOT ELIMINATE, FROST
POTENTIAL THERE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, FLAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS FLATTEN THE RIDGE THAT INITIALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY BEHIND
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS, ALONG WITH
LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT, COULD
BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, EVEN THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THAT, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A LARGER, MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK, PUSHING THE WARM FRONT WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. AS SUCH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, IF EVEN THAT,
AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO INCREASINGLY UNSEASONABLY HIGH,
SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS PUSH 90
DEGREES ON SUNDAY, AND THEN THE HEAT PEAKS NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE, AND THE MINI HEAT WAVE SHOULD BE
BROKEN BY ANOTHER WEDNESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INTERRUPTED BY AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AND LATER THIS MORNING FARTHER EAST.
TWO LINES OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST LINE OF ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO SLIP DOWN INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. IT MAY STILL
HAVE THUNDER IN IT AS IT APPROACHES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING,
BUT ANY THUNDER SHOULD WANE AS THE ACTIVITY TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS, AND INTO TH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT FROM THIS LINE IS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN.
A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS
FROM THE FIRST LINE IN TERMS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR VISIBILITY
IN RAIN WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS SECOND LINE AS WELL, ALONG WITH
VCTS. HOWEVER, A DIRECT IMPACT OF A STRONGER, HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO MVFR
CEILING, ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
FROM ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER EASTWARD, FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KTS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PICK UP AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, AND THEN
VEER TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND THIS
EVENING EAST. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TODAY
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND FOR A SHORT TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT, BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY INDUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVER TOP THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING,
BEFORE MIXING THROUGH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
ALOFT LATE TODAY WEST AND THIS EVENING EAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PRECIPITATION TIMING AND IMPACTS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST TODAY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, MAINLY ON CEILING.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------
SUN, 5/17 | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 92 / 91 (1962) | 95 / 92 (1982) | 94 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 90 / 95 (1908) | 93 / 92 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 89 / 90 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1962) | 92 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 89 / 94 (1962) | 94 / 95 (1962) | 94 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 86 / 86 (1962) | 88 / 87 (1996) | 88 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 87 / 87 (2017) | 91 / 89 (1911) | 91 / 93 (1996) |
-------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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