233
FXUS61 KRLX 131819
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEAT FOR THE CLOSE
OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. UPDATES ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
- 2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE A CHANCE AT BREAKING RECORDS ON
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD OUT THE MOUNTAINS THIS
HOUR. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS APPROACHING OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE MANIFESTING OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS OH, WESTERN PA, AND NORTHERN WV COURTESY OF
FORCING FROM THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE WHERE THERE IS CLEARING.
THERE IS MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT OCCURS TODAY, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF WV AND OH, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT HAIL MAY FORM
ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST LIKELY TIMING IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM
TODAY. AT THIS TIME, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
WITH A FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THIS "ROLLER COASTER" OF A SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO THE MID 60S; THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAY WARRANT SOME PATCHY FROST
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY
AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
THE REAL FEATURE WILL BE A MINIATURE HEAT WAVE THAT ARRIVES
SUNDAY AND LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH THAT
WILL SET UP OFF THE COAST. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, MAYBE EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES. THE
LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS RISE INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
A FEW HEAT SINK VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA MAY END UP
HITTING THE UPPER 90S. MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN SOME, BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, FALLING BACK INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST WITH THE LOWLAND VALLEYS GETTING CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES.
*SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR PROJECTED HIGHS AND PREVIOUS DAILY RECORDS*
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING IS EXITING OFF TO OUR
EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS. SCT TO BKN CIGS ARE SWIFT ON THE HEELS
BEHIND THIS LINE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST NOW
ENTERING OUR WESTERNMOST OH COUNTIES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
MOSTLY BETWEEN ~18Z AND ~23Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. THIS RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS OF
WV AND OH.
MVFR AND IFR STRATOCU DECK MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
STAYING MVFR, BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT BKW, CKB, AND
EKN. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR FOR SITES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS BY
~18Z. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE SW'RLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING NW'RLY BEHIND
IT TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
NW'RLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
NOT MATERIALIZE QUITE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED OR MAY REMAIN
LIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WV WITH STUBBORN STRATOCUMULUS DECK.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------
SUN, 5/17 | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 91 / 91 (1962) | 96 / 92 (1982) | 94 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 91 / 95 (1908) | 95 / 92 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 88 / 90 (1962) | 95 / 92 (1962) | 94 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 90 / 94 (1962) | 96 / 95 (1962) | 95 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 85 / 86 (1962) | 89 / 87 (1996) | 88 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 87 / 87 (2017) | 93 / 89 (1911) | 92 / 93 (1996) |
-------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
CLIMATE...LTC
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