977
FXUS61 KRLX 140610
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
715 PM UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
219 PM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEAT FOR THE CLOSE
OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK. UPDATES ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
- 2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE A CHANCE AT BREAKING RECORDS ON
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD OUT THE MOUNTAINS THIS
HOUR. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS APPROACHING OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE MANIFESTING OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS OH, WESTERN PA, AND NORTHERN WV COURTESY OF
FORCING FROM THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE WHERE THERE IS CLEARING.
THERE IS MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT OCCURS TODAY, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF WV AND OH, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT HAIL MAY FORM
ACROSS THE NORTH. MOST LIKELY TIMING IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM
TODAY. AT THIS TIME, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
WITH A FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THIS "ROLLER COASTER" OF A SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO THE MID 60S; THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAY WARRANT SOME PATCHY FROST
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY
AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.
THE REAL FEATURE WILL BE A MINIATURE HEAT WAVE THAT ARRIVES
SUNDAY AND LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH THAT
WILL SET UP OFF THE COAST. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, MAYBE EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES. THE
LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS RISE INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
A FEW HEAT SINK VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA MAY END UP
HITTING THE UPPER 90S. MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY ACROSS OUR
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN SOME, BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, FALLING BACK INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST WITH THE LOWLAND VALLEYS GETTING CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES.
*SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR PROJECTED HIGHS AND PREVIOUS DAILY RECORDS*
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STRATOCUMULUS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD, IN
WRAP-AROUND NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST /A STRONGER ONE DEVELOPING FARTHER
OFFSHORE/.
THE MVFR STRATOCU WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, BEFORE
BREAKING UP TONIGHT. THE MVFR STRATOCU WILL REACH BACK TO CKB
BY DAWN, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN
BREAKING UP TONIGHT. PKB, HTS AND CRW WILL HAVE VFR STRATOCU,
SCATTERED EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING BROKEN AFTER SUNRISE
EXCEPT ALREADY OVERCAST AT PKB, AND THE SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
THIS EVENING.
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF EKN, CKB, AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS PERHAPS AS FAR
SOUTH AS BKW AT TIMES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT LEAST IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN GUSTY /15 TO 20
KTS/ MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY,
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR AT EKN THIS MORNING
AND CRW AND HTS GOING BROKEN BEFORE SUNRISE ALBEIT STILL VFR.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/14/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------
SUN, 5/17 | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 91 / 91 (1962) | 96 / 92 (1982) | 94 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 91 / 95 (1908) | 95 / 92 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 88 / 90 (1962) | 95 / 92 (1962) | 94 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 90 / 94 (1962) | 96 / 95 (1962) | 95 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 85 / 86 (1962) | 89 / 87 (1996) | 88 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 87 / 87 (2017) | 93 / 89 (1911) | 92 / 93 (1996) |
-------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...LTC
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