780
FXUS61 KRLX 140955
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
340 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COOLER AIR WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 2) STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- 3) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COOLER AIR TAKING CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
COOLER AFTERNOON TODAY, THE CHANGE FURTHER ACCENTED BY LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS. WHILE RAIN FOR THE MOST PART,
PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY MAY TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW AND
ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 0 C.
H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C SUPPORT LOWLAND DAYTIME HIGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 15 C, OR NEAR 60 F /59/, AND CENTRAL GUIDANCE
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO THE MID
60S WEST, REFLECTING A TEMPERATURES GRADIENT OUTSIDE THE
TERRAIN CHANGE, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE LATE WEST.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN TONIGHT COULD
SUPPORT FROST THERE TONIGHT IF WE COULD LOSE THE CLOUD AND WIND
THERE. IT APPEARS WE WILL LOSE THE CLOUD, AND THE WIND SHOULD
DECOUPLE AT LEAST IN THE DEEPER, BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS THERE,
SO DO HAVE ISOLATED FROST.
AFTER THE CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING, A STOUT WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY, KEY MESSAGE 3.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IT IS NONE OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS THAT INTERRUPT THE FLOW
FROM KEY MESSAGE 1 TO 3, AS THE WARM FRONT BRINGING ON THE STOUT
WARMING TREND, ALONG WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH, AND DAYTIME HEATING, PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT LIKE WEDNESDAY BUT WITH A WARM FRONT
INSTEAD OF A COLD FRONT, IN THAT THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AS A PAIR OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CROSS.
ONE CROSSING EARLY IN THE MORNING BRINGS THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS, BUT IT IS THE SECOND ONE THAT CROSSES IN THE AFTERNOON
THAT WILL HAVE DAYTIME HEATING TO WORK WITH, GIVEN AN AMPLE
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO.
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY IF WE COULD REALIZE ADEQUATE
CAPE, INCLUDING THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL BE
AS HIGH OR EVEN HIGHER THAN THE 0-6 OR 0-8 KM SHEAR. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL VEERING OF FLOW WITH HEIGHT COULD ALSO
SUPPORT ROTATION, POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS. IN
ADDITION, HIGHER PW VALUES, PW VALUES OF AN INCH AND A THIRD TO
AN INCH AND A HALF, COMPARED WITH THE ONE INCH OR LESS ON
WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOWER MOVING AND
HEAVIER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A
MARGINAL RISK AREA IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, THE HEAT BUILDS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM NORTH. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMPLICATES THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL BE LOWER IF THE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THEN. IT WILL ULTIMATELY
END THE MINI HEAT WAVE, AS THE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE ENVELOP ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
FURTHER, MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND FLOW BACKS QUICKLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AHEAD OF
ANOTHER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY DRIVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
*SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR FORECAST HIGHS AND PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORDS*
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STRATOCUMULUS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD, IN
WRAP-AROUND NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST /A STRONGER ONE DEVELOPING FARTHER
OFFSHORE/.
THE MVFR STRATOCU WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY, BEFORE BREAKING UP TONIGHT. THE MVFR STRATOCU AT CKB
SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE BREAKING UP
TONIGHT. PKB, HTS AND CRW WILL HAVE VFR STRATOCU THAT COULD
LOWER AT TIMES TO MVFR, PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF EKN, CKB, AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS PERHAPS AS FAR
SOUTH AS BKW AT TIMES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE GUSTY, IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
MUCH OF THE TIME TODAY, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER, BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, AND THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM AT LEAST AT PKB, HTS AND CRW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR AT EKN
THIS MORNING. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/14/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY STRONG
AND HEAVY, SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------
SUN, 5/17 | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 89 / 91 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1982) | 92 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 89 / 95 (1908) | 92 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 86 / 90 (1962) | 92 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 88 / 94 (1962) | 92 / 95 (1962) | 91 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 83 / 86 (1962) | 86 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 84 / 87 (2017) | 88 / 89 (1911) | 88 / 93 (1996) |
-------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page