468
FXUS61 KRLX 141845
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PATCHY
FROST IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. UPDATE ON SATURDAY'S SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. UPDATE ON THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COOLER AIR WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FROST
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- 2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- 3) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLE REACHING OR BREAKING
RECORDS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COOLER, POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS WITH 50S LOCKING IN ELSEWHERE AND SOME 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE CLEARING COMES IN EARNEST TONIGHT.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON; IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT SOME ICE PELLETS OR
FLURRIES MIX IN ABOVE 4,000 FEET.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TONIGHT. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF RANDOLPH, POCAHONTAS, AND WEBSTER COUNTIES
IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS DECOUPLE. CURRENT THINKING
AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR, BUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY
ACROSS THE RIDGES OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL PRIMARILY
KEEP FROST CONFINED TO THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAT
DECOUPLE LATER TONIGHT. THAT SAID, OPTED FOR A LONG-FUSE
STATEMENT VERSUS A FROST ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED PATCHY INSTEAD
OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF FROST. IF LOW CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THEN FROST MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT. 80S ARE ON THE BOARD FOR MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS ON
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS SHOW
AN EARLY MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A SECONDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PUSH THAT WILL
SHOWCASE THE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PROVIDE MORE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR OHIO, KENTUCKY, AND WESTERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BUILD OFF THE EASTERN CONUS LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK CREATING A PERIOD OF HEAT COMPARABLE TO
JULY AND AUGUST STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS,
WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS JUMPING UP INTO THE UPPER
70S AND 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AT
CHARLESTON, HUNTINGTON, CLARKSBURG, AND PARKERSBURG.
THE BLEND OF MODELS HAS BEEN OVERDONE WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES LATELY; IT USUALLY IS WITH OUR
FIRST HEAT EVENT OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER, IT PREDICTS THAT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. NEARLY EVERY OTHER MODEL IS
TRENDING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
LEAVING THE BLEND OF MODELS THE SOLE OUTLIER.
NO DOUBT A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH, BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD AND
FULLY BLOOMED VEGETATION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING TOO FAR INTO THE 90S.
*SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR FORECAST HIGHS AND PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORDS*
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BKN TO
OVC CIGS WILL BE GRADUALLY RISE WITH CRW, HTS, AND PKB
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE STUBBORN MVFR
CIGS REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS BKW, CKB, EKN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPO, PROB30, AND VCSH WERE ADDED AT CKB AND EKN
THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO LINGER AT EKN AND
MAYBE CKB UNTIL ROUGHLY ~06Z. IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE
THEN CRW MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW RIVER VALLEY FOG. VFR IS EXPECTED
FOR MANY SITES TOMORROW.
NW'RLY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 7-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CALM TO LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BUT WILL LIKELY STAY BREEZY ACROSS THE
RIDGES OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF VFR RETURNING TO ALL SITES MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CKB AND EKN
HOLD MVFR LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO
AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE ACROSS OH,
KY AND PORTIONS OF WV.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------
SUN, 5/17 | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 91 / 91 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1982) | 92 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 91 / 95 (1908) | 92 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 89 / 90 (1962) | 93 / 92 (1962) | 93 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 90 / 94 (1962) | 93 / 95 (1962) | 93 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 86 / 86 (1962) | 84 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 87 / 87 (2017) | 89 / 89 (1911) | 89 / 93 (1996) |
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RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
CLIMATE...LTC
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