915
FXUS61 KRLX 152322
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
18Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE. UPDATE ON SATURDAY'S POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) ABOVE NORMAL, MID-SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
3) MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO
PERSIST WITH SMALL AMOUNTS RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN AS A RESULT. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ACROSS OUR
EASTERN MOST ZONES DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR SOME MORNING SHOWERS AND
SOME CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT CROSSING IN THE AFTERNOON.
STILL, THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR KENTUCKY AND
OHIO COUNTIES WITH A SURGE OF 1,000-1,500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED, MOST
UNSTABLE, AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE MAIN DRIVER
BEING ADEQUATE LIFT FROM THE FRONT. 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0C/KM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CELLS TO OCCUR. SCATTERED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY ORGANIZED, STRONGER CONVECTION.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY, BUT THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE IN PLAY STARTING TODAY AND IN
EARNEST SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. A STOUT
BERMUDA HIGH WILL FORM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOMALOUSLY WARM, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH OF THOSE DAYS. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY TIE OR BREAK SOME RECORDS
ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THOSE DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST.
THE BLEND OF MODELS HAS BEEN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 FOR MAY LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT IT
REMAINS ONE OF THE SOLE MODELS THAT IS PREDICTING THIS WITH MOST OF
THE OTHER MODELS HIGHLIGHTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT THE
MOST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THIS
IS THE FIRST HOT SPELL OF THE YEAR(THE NBM TYPICALLY OVERDOES THE
FIRST EVENT), BUT ALSO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER, WINDS, FULLY EMERGED
VEGETATION AND CHANCES FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING ABSURD HEAT VALUES. WOULD
BE MORE PLAUSIBLE IF THE RIDGE AND/OR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT LESS HOT TEMPERATURES IN STORE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.
TODAY: LOWLANDS WILL ACHIEVE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH THE
MOUNTAINS STAYING IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SATURDAY: WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SUNDAY: VERY WARM, THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY: HOT, WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE A CHANCE FOR TYING OR
BREAKING RECORDS.
TUESDAY: THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 80S. ANOTHER POSSIBLE DAY FOR
TYING OR BREAKING RECORDS.
WEDNESDAY: WARM, BUT LESS OPPRESSIVE WITH THE LOWLANDS FORECASTED TO
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
*SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORDS FOR
OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES*
KEY MESSAGE 3...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SPAN OUR
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AS WELL AS OUR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS BEING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE,
OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES, AND THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT ONLY BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.30"
IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AND IS BARELY ENOUGH TO MAKE A DENT
IN THE DROUGHT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE WILL BE PICKED UP
ACROSS OUR OHIO AND KENTUCKY COUNTIES, AS WELL AS SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SET UP.
LONG-RANGE MODELS HOWEVER DO SHOW A STRONG SYSTEM CROSSING NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND FRIDAY WHICH MAY
BRING SOAKING RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY DOMINATE THIS TAF PERIOD. NO FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT, HOWEVER SOME PATCHES MAY FORM IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNEAK INTO CRW AND/OR EKN. TOMORROW AFTERNOON A
WARM FRONT CROSSES AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORNING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AFTER BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH
AND KY.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
--------------------------------------------------
- | MON, 5/15 | TUE, 5/16 |
--------------------------------------------------
- CHARLESTON | 91 / 92 (1982) | 89 / 95 (1931) |
- HUNTINGTON | 92 / 92 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1996) |
- CLARKSBURG | 89 / 92 (1962) | 88 / 90 (1959) |
- PARKERSBURG | 90 / 95 (1962) | 90 / 90 (1964) |
- BECKLEY | 86 / 87 (1996) | 83 / 89 (1996) |
- ELKINS | 89 / 89 (1911) | 86 / 93 (1996) |
--------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...JZ
CLIMATE...LTC
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