916
FXUS61 KRLX 161810
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
1128 AM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARDS/INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. WHILE THE GENERAL THINKING REMAINS THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER EASTWARD INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH (OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER) ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THAT ARE IMPACTED BY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
CORES (E.G. NORTHEAST KENTUCKY).
836 AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED POPS THROUGH THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS, WITH THE MAIN POINT OF EMPHASIS BEING REDUCED POPS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AREAWIDE AS A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.
2) SUMMERLIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BIG COOL DOWN WILL THEN
ARRIVE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS, THEN
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TWO SEPARATE, YET DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS, WITH ONE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS/IOWA AND ANOTHER
PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL, NORTHERN,
AND EASTERN PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA TODAY. MODELS ARE ONLY
FAVORING 300-600 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS REGION. MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WITH MODELS SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 800-1200
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE DEVELOPMENT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL LIKELY BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER BERMUDA AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME SUMMERLIKE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD ADEQUATELY HYDRATE
AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING AS NEEDED.
ALSO, CHECK ON INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT DURING THIS STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER.
*** RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS
STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER. MORE DETAILS ON CLIMATE RECORDS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. ***
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
A DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AREAWIDE.
RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY COME WITH THE SHARP DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, EXACT DETAILS
REGARDING HOW MUCH RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY NEEDED, GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
AT PRESENT, SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING PERHAPS VERY BRIEF
MVFR VSBY AT TIMES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT/DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT (AFTER ~ 2Z) CENTRAL/NORTH THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 13Z.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER SAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT GIVEN ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, BUT OVERALL, CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION/INTENSITY IS QUITE LOW. SOME RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND COULD BE BREEZY AT
TIMES. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TONIGHT MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
--------------------------------------------------------
SUN, 5/17 | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 88 / 91 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1982) | 92 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 89 / 95 (1908) | 90 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 84 / 90 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 86 / 94 (1962) | 90 / 95 (1962) | 92 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 83 / 86 (1962) | 84 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 82 / 87 (2017) | 86 / 89 (1911) | 88 / 93 (1996) |
--------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/26
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW
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