044
FXUS61 KRLX 171724
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
847 AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEAST OHIO EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS) THROUGH THIS MORNING TO BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL STEADILY LESSEN THEREAFTER, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
731 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
RIVER VALLEYS FROM THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA SOUTH THIS MORNING.
FOG SHOULD STEADILY LIFT/DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO,
BUT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS UNTIL THEN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF VERY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
2) DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HOT
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT THREE.
THIS SUMMERLIKE WEATHER IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC, BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
HEAT SAFETY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SINCE MAY HAS BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SO FAR, AND
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST STRETCHES OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS
SHOULD TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE AIR CONDITIONING OR IN THE
SHADE. STAY ADEQUATELY HYDRATED DURING THIS STRETCH. IT'S ALSO
IMPORTANT TO CHECK ON THOSE WHO ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO
THE HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. THEN, THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A WETTER
PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ALL DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND A
CONSTANT STREAM OF 500-MB VORTICITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CURRENTLY, THE WETTEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75" TO 1.25". GIVEN THAT MOST OF
WEST VIRGINIA IS CATEGORIZED IN EITHER D1 MODERATE DROUGHT OR D2
SEVERE DROUGHT RIGHT NOW, THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE LARGELY
BENEFICIAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD (UNTIL 18Z MONDAY), WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT WITH RIVER VALLEY
FOG. ANY FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU (040-080) WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET, WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING CRW/EKN WITH MVFR/IFR (AND PERHAPS LIFR)
RESTRICTIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP QUICKLY LIFTS/DISSIPATES
BY ~ 12Z, WITH A FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU FIELD (035-050) DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH CALM OR VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON
MONDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG TONIGHT; OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
--------------------------------------------------------
TODAY | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 88 / 91 (1962) | 91 / 92 (1982) | 90 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 89 / 95 (1908) | 90 / 92 (1962) | 89 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 86 / 90 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1962) | 89 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 87 / 94 (1962) | 91 / 95 (1962) | 90 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 83 / 86 (1962) | 85 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 84 / 87 (2017) | 87 / 89 (1911) | 86 / 93 (1996) |
--------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/26
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW
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