736
FXUS61 KRLX 010515
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THIS WEEK FROM PASSING
DISTURBANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, WILL GRAZE THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, CREATING ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM, ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW. ON TUESDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
CREATING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF DRY, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR. ANY FOG
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 06/01/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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