627
FXUS61 KRLX 021714
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, THE WEEK REMAINS DRY, QUIET, AND
COMFORTABLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS CAN
CREATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE SMALL, LIKELY ONLY AMOUNTING TO UP TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE COVERAGE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES, AND DRY
WEATHER. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME VERY PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS EACH MORNING AROUND SUNRISE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS THAT SEES RAINFALL TODAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF A CHANGING PATTERN BRINGING RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
THIS WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
ARRIVES. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INDICATIVE TODAY OF THIS
OCCURRING, WHILE YESTERDAY, A FEW MODELS KEPT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A VAST AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE
FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, SO POPS WILL
BE LIMITED TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, BUT KEKN
OR KBKW COULD SEE A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IF A
THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THOSE AREAS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THAT WOULD BE ANYTIME BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.
PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG HAVE BEEN ADDED AT KEKN AND KCRW BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING MIGHT BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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