962
FXUS61 KRLX 022346
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
114 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, THE WEEK REMAINS DRY, QUIET, AND
COMFORTABLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS CAN
CREATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE SMALL, LIKELY ONLY AMOUNTING TO UP TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE COVERAGE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES, AND DRY
WEATHER. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME VERY PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS EACH MORNING AROUND SUNRISE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS THAT SEES RAINFALL TODAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF A CHANGING PATTERN BRINGING RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
THIS WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
ARRIVES. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INDICATIVE TODAY OF THIS
OCCURRING, WHILE YESTERDAY, A FEW MODELS KEPT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A VAST AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE
FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, SO POPS WILL
BE LIMITED TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCRW AND KEKN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY, BY 12Z, WITH VFR RETURNING THEREAFTER.
AFTER BRIEF GUSTY EAST WINDS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WAKE OF
A GUST FRONT FROM THUNDERSTORMS COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
EARLIER, LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW, EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT BKW
ON ACCOUNT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH, WILL BECOME CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NORTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MIGHT BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...TRM
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