000
FXUS61 KRLX 030911
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
511 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
510 AM...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, UNSETTLED FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH A PERIOD OF DRY, AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS, BUT OVERALL, HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW, PROVIDING FOR
PLEASANT WEATHER. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNINGS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARM, AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS
OF LATE. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA
EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD
AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z-13Z,
WITH A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT, IFR VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN,
DISSIPATING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MIGHT BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page