538
FXUS61 KRLX 040514
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
114 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
111 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS WEEK, LEADING TO NUMEROUS DAYS
OF DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, REACHING THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR THIS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE EXACT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND TIMING ARE ALL
UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WHILE OTHERS SHOW DRY
WEATHER RETURNING AMID HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OUTSIDE EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WHICH WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL, THE RIVER VALLEY FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SPREAD FARTHER WESTWARD COMPARED WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HAVE VLIFR DENSE FOG 09-11Z AT CKB IN
ADDITION TO CRW AND EKN /09-12Z/ EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH BRIEF
MVFR MIST POSSIBLE AT HTS AND / OR PKB JUST BEFORE DAWN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG EARLY THIS MIGHT BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/04/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L M M L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...TRM
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