316
FXUS61 KRLX 041700
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
100 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
230 AM UPDATE...
THE DRY, PLEASANT WEATHER OF THIS WEEK GIVES WAY TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SUMMERLIKE REGIME NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY DIURNAL DRIVEN
CONVECTION AMID DIRTY MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
WORK WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING TREND AS
RIDGING ALOFT CROSSES.
- 2) A SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT, AND DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
- 3) THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA IN A VERY WARM TO HOT, AND
SOMEWHAT MESSY, WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK,
WITH DIRTY RIDGING PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMID THE SLOWLY BUILDING
HEAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK
WEEK, BEFORE YIELDING TO LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS CONTINUES THE DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER
AND WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING CROSSES. LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, REACHING THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH, RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE YIELDS TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH, WHICH DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN PUSHES IT ONLY SLUGGISHLY
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.
WHILE THE EXACT COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND TIMING REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, INCREASING INTEGRATED MOISTURE AND MODEST INCREASE
IN EFFECTIVE LAYER FLOW/SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRONG, HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
NORTH, AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, BUT EITHER WAY, MID/UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REDUCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHILE RELEGATING ACTIVITY TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE, AND THE
ASSOCIATED LIGHT DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL REDUCE THE STRENGTH OF
STORMS OUTSIDE LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.
WITH OFFSHORE TROUGHING, AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. RIDGING
BISECTED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY, THE DIURNAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES, BUT THERE MAY BE A GRADIENT IN INTEGRATED MOISTURE
CONTENT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING EAST BUT
REMAINING HIGH WEST. THE PREDICTABILITY IN TERMS OF THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOUR AND DOWNBURST THREAT BEING HIGHEST WEST IS LOW AT THIS
FORECAST PROJECTION, BUT THE FORECAST DOES CARRY THE CHANCE FOR
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NEXT WORK WEEK, PERHAPS A BIT MORE SO ON LOWS VERSUS HIGHS AMID
THE DIRTY RIDGING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION COULD AFFECT EKN LATE
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS LOCALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...RPY
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