191
FXUS61 KRLX 050753
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE. UPDATE TO SATURDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY AFTER A DRY
STRETCH. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 2) REMAINING ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A CLASSIC, MULTI-DAY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN KICKS OFF.
- 3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO OUR
STINT OF DRIER WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. CURRENTLY, THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT WILL TRAVERSE OUR
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WHICH MODELS AGREE ON A
TIMING BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. CAPE WILL BE BETWEEN 1,000 AND 1,500
J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES UP AROUND 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
PARAMETERS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
SOME MODELS, MOSTLY THE GLOBAL MODELS (I.E GFS, EURO, AND
CANADIAN), DELAY THE FRONT FROM MOVING THROUGH LEADING TO LATER
TIMING AND NOT AS ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM ON SATURDAY, WITH THE THREAT WANING
SOME AFTER SUNDOWN. SPC HAS CUT THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
BACK SOME WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. TRAINING STORMS AND SHOWERS
LOOK PROBABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTER THE MAIN SEVERE
RISK DIES DOWN. HEAVIER SWATHS OF RAINFALL ARE PROJECTED TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN STARTS UP. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL IN
PLAY LATER IN THE WEEK AS MODELS SUGGEST EITHER A CUT-OFF LOW OR
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTH, MAINTAINING THE
ACTIVE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL STARTING TODAY
AND SPANNING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A STOUT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITTING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES; THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID 70S AND LOW 80S. HUMIDITY WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
FLOW SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WITH THE
HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG
FOR SITES LIKE EKN AND MAYBE CRW. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY FOG FORMATION, BUT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY ~13Z AS FOG
WILL BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH DRY WEATHER
REMAINING INTACT.
WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING, BUT PICKING UP LIGHT (5 TO 10
KNOTS) AND SW'RLY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
BE BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OH AND NORTHERN WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION NEAR EKN MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CRW, CKB, AND PKB SEE FOG FORMATION WHEN IT
IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 06/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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