384
FXUS61 KRLX 051808
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED AT 2 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY AFTER A DRY
STRETCH. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 2) REMAINING ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
A CLASSIC, MULTI-DAY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN KICKS OFF.
- 3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO OUR
STINT OF DRIER WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. CURRENTLY, THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT WILL TRAVERSE OUR
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES WHICH MODELS AGREE ON A
TIMING BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. CAPE WILL BE BETWEEN 1,000 AND 1,500
J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES UP AROUND 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
PARAMETERS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
SOME MODELS, MOSTLY THE GLOBAL MODELS (I.E GFS, EURO, AND
CANADIAN), DELAY THE FRONT FROM MOVING THROUGH LEADING TO LATER
TIMING AND NOT AS ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM ON SATURDAY, WITH THE THREAT WANING
SOME AFTER SUNDOWN. SPC HAS CUT THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
BACK SOME WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. TRAINING STORMS AND SHOWERS
LOOK PROBABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTER THE MAIN SEVERE
RISK DIES DOWN. HEAVIER SWATHS OF RAINFALL ARE PROJECTED TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN STARTS UP. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL IN
PLAY LATER IN THE WEEK AS MODELS SUGGEST EITHER A CUT-OFF LOW OR
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTH, MAINTAINING THE
ACTIVE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL STARTING TODAY
AND SPANNING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A STOUT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITTING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES; THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID 70S AND LOW 80S. HUMIDITY WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
FLOW SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WITH THE
HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AREA-WIDE AMID DRY WEATHER. A
FEW-SCT (045-070) CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AMID
PATCHY CIRRUS. VFR THEN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR
SOUTHERN WV, ALONG WITH THE TYGART VALLEY. THE ONLY TERMINAL
WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS EKN, WITH FOG CODED INTO THE FORECAST
FROM ~ 8-12Z ON SATURDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LIFTS/DISSIPATES
BY 12Z, GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AMID A SCT CU FIELD
(040-060) LATE MORNING ONWARD. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MID-OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
(18Z SATURDAY), BUT HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT SW'RLY FLOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OH
AND NORTHERN WV. CALM OR VERY LIGHT SW'RLY FLOW OVERNIGHT, WITH
FLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BREEZES OF 15-20
KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM W/ FOG AT EKN; OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP AT EKN TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF IFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...GW
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