892
FXUS61 KRLX 051915
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATER ON SATURDAY AFTER A
DRY STRETCH. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- 2) REMAINING ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A CLASSIC, MULTI-DAY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
CONTINUES.
- 3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RE-INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AN INITIAL ROUND
OF CONVECTION, CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES, WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
ISOLD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE MID-OHIO
VALLEY. THE MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL ROUND IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AMID PROGGED INSTABILITY OF
1,000-2,000 J/KG MIXED- LAYER CAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, WITH A SECONDARY HAZARD OF HAIL (GIVEN FREEZING LEVELS OF
NEARLY 13 KFT). CAMS DEPICT VARYING SOLUTIONS, WITH THE MOST
PROBABLE PERIOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA, WITH A
STEADILY DECREASING RISK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES,
ALONG WITH THE PARKERSBURG TO CLARKSBURG REGION. IN ADDITION, AN
ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING CANNOT ENTIRELY BE
RULED OUT GIVEN ANY WEST TO EAST TRAINING CONVECTION. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN / DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
NIGHT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, THEN
EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING THIS,
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERIODICALLY CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RESULTS IN CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AMID THE MORE SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE IS LOW, ISOLATED STRONGER DIURNAL STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ALONG WITH HYDRO CONCERNS
MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN COMPOUNDING ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. IN ADDITION,
HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TIME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AREA-WIDE AMID DRY WEATHER. A
FEW-SCT (045-070) CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AMID
PATCHY CIRRUS. VFR THEN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR
SOUTHERN WV, ALONG WITH THE TYGART VALLEY. THE ONLY TERMINAL
WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS EKN, WITH FOG CODED INTO THE FORECAST
FROM ~ 8-12Z ON SATURDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LIFTS/DISSIPATES
BY 12Z, GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AMID A SCT CU FIELD
(040-060) LATE MORNING ONWARD. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MID-OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
(18Z SATURDAY), BUT HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT SW'RLY FLOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OH
AND NORTHERN WV. CALM OR VERY LIGHT SW'RLY FLOW OVERNIGHT, WITH
FLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BREEZES OF 15-20
KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM W/ FOG AT EKN; OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP AT EKN TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF IFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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