422
FXUS61 KRLX 060741
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
341 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE. UPDATE ON SATURDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER.
REMAINING ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN
RISKS.
- 2) DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH A FRONT HANGING AROUND. LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
- 3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AMID STOUT WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT-RANGE CONVECTIVE
MODELS SHOW A FEW ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY TODAY WITH SOME CHANCES FOR
MORNING SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN AFTERNOON COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT
WILL TRAVERSE OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRADDLE
OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OUR NORTH.
SOME STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY. OUR
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES HAVE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WITH AROUND 1,000 J/KG
OF CAPE AND BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCORDING TO CAMS IS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM.
MORE SCATTERED AND ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. SPC STILL MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF ANY ORGANIZED
CELLS TAP INTO ANY WIND SHEAR.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTED BETWEEN 1.00" AND 1.75". THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS OHIO, AND CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
THROUGH THE SPAN OF THE WEEK WITH A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT
HANGING AROUND THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
IS LOW FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS HEAT BUILDS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND A FEW UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
AREA.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN
1.50" AND 2.00" DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. IN ADDITION, HUMIDITY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO
THE LOW 70S ARRIVING SUNDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITION REMAIN INTACT FOR MANY SITES THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARRIVE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS WOULD ONLY AFFECT KEKN BUT ONLY EXPECTING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE WORST AND ONLY FOR A FINITE AMOUNT OF TIME.
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 7,000 AND 20,000 FEET AGL WILL
FILTER THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS FALL
BETWEEN 3,000 AND 5,000 FEET AGL BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS SCT TO BKN CU FIELDS FORM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR OH AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT PICK UP OUT
OF THE SW AFTER ~12Z AND WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG BECOMES MORE DENSE AND IMPACTS MORE
LOCATIONS THAN FORECASTED. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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