707
FXUS61 KRLX 061030
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
341 AM UPDATE:
UPDATE ON TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER. REMAINING ACTIVE NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN
RISKS.
- 2) DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH A FRONT HANGING AROUND. LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
- 3) TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AMID STOUT WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT-RANGE CONVECTIVE
MODELS SHOW A FEW ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY TODAY WITH SOME CHANCES FOR
MORNING SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN AFTERNOON COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT
WILL TRAVERSE OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRADDLE
OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OUR NORTH.
SOME STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY. OUR
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES HAVE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WITH AROUND 1,000 J/KG
OF CAPE AND BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCORDING TO CAMS IS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM.
MORE SCATTERED AND ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. SPC STILL MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF ANY ORGANIZED
CELLS TAP INTO ANY WIND SHEAR.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTED BETWEEN 1.00" AND 1.75". THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS OHIO, AND CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
THROUGH THE SPAN OF THE WEEK WITH A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT
HANGING AROUND THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
IS LOW FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS HEAT BUILDS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND A FEW UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
AREA.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN
1.50" AND 2.00" DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. IN ADDITION, HUMIDITY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO
THE LOW 70S ARRIVING SUNDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITION REMAIN INTACT FOR MANY SITES THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARRIVE. MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN
7,000 AND 20,000 FEET AGL WILL FILTER THROUGH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS FALL BETWEEN 3,000 AND 5,000 FEET AGL BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SCT TO BKN CU FIELDS FORM.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR OH AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SW THIS MORNING AND WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL VARY IN AND
AROUND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page