341
FXUS61 KRLX 061357
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
957 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AT 9:55 AM... UPDATED KEY MESSAGES DESCRIBING TODAY'S SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND THE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT, BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES, A 500-MB SHORTWAVE,
AND BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, WHERE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY STRONG
AGREEMENT WITH A ZONE OF 1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A ZONE OF 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO TRACK EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN BE
SEEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. IT'S HOLDING
TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AS IT TRACKS EAST, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (1 PM TO 5 PM). THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS (CAMS) SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREAS THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY PLACES NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.80 INCHES
TODAY IN THESE AREAS, AND IF MULTIPLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEGINNING SUNDAY, A VERY
JUICY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER 70S. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND AMPLE FORCING WILL TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
EACH DAY. THE AIR WILL FEEL SUMMERLIKE ALL WEEK WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, KEEPING THE AIR FEELING VERY
HUMID. THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY, IN COMBINATION WITH ENERGY ALOFT,
WILL TRIGGER DIURNAL ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITION REMAIN INTACT FOR MANY SITES THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARRIVE. MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN
7,000 AND 20,000 FEET AGL WILL FILTER THROUGH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS FALL BETWEEN 3,000 AND 5,000 FEET AGL BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SCT TO BKN CU FIELDS FORM.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR OH AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SW THIS MORNING AND WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL VARY IN AND
AROUND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...LTC
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