820
FXUS61 KRLX 070004
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
804 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE
WEAKENED FOR OUR PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A CLUSTER MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACCOMPANYING STORMS COULD CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN WV COUNTIES AS
THEY MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE.
AT 610 PM... A NEW SET OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INFILTRATED SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING, WARRANTING A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
AT 118 PM... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT, BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES, A 500-MB SHORTWAVE,
AND BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, WHERE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY STRONG
AGREEMENT WITH A ZONE OF 1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A ZONE OF 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO TRACK EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN BE
SEEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. IT'S HOLDING
TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AS IT TRACKS EAST, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (1 PM TO 5 PM). THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS (CAMS) SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREAS THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY PLACES NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.80 INCHES
TODAY IN THESE AREAS, AND IF MULTIPLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEGINNING SUNDAY, A VERY
JUICY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER 70S. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND AMPLE FORCING WILL TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
EACH DAY. THE AIR WILL FEEL SUMMERLIKE ALL WEEK WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, KEEPING THE AIR FEELING VERY
HUMID. THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY, IN COMBINATION WITH ENERGY ALOFT,
WILL TRIGGER DIURNAL ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM OHIO HAS ONCE AGAIN
ENTERED IN CLOSE VICINITY TO OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED A TOUCH AS THEY PROGRESS INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BUT WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE MONITORING OF A
CLUSTER MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE, AS
IT HAS A CHANCE OF CLIPPING CKB AND EKN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. FROM THERE, CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE PROGGED TO SETTLE DOWN
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS
ANTICIPATED TO IMPOSE MVFR CEILINGS ALONG PKB, CKB, AND EKN
OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY ERODING SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR -TSRA LOOKS TO BE
AROUND HTS FOR THE CONCLUDING HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING
MAY REACH NORTHERN TERMINALS AND INFLICT BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH MORNING VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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