351
FXUS61 KRLX 070712
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
312 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
~06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO WANE, BUT SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE DOWN FROM OUR NORTH THROUGH TODAY CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLOW-MOVING AND TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WANE IN
SEVERITY, BUT COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING TODAY.
2) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER LOWLAND AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA
AND OHIO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO
HALF AN INCH THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THAT SAID, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL AT LEAST 8 AM.
LOCALIZED INSTANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A RESULT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTH. THE METRO AREA WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOOKS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SLOW MOVING,
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPPING INTO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.00" AND 1.75". SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ACTIVE AND MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT HANGING AROUND THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.00" AND 2.00"
WITH AN AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.25" AND 1.75" FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISKS SOMEWHERE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A
POSSIBLE CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CURRENTLY, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT
FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE SUB-SEVERE OR GARDEN VARIETY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WARM WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S BEING COMMON AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK AS DEW POINTS REACH OPPRESSIVE LEVELS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIXED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, VFR FOR MOST, BUT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OF WV. THIS INCLUDES THE SITES OF CKB AND EKN.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL MID-
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED CURRENTLY.
SW'RLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING WITH A MORE
N'RLY SHIFT ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF A STATIONARY FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, INTENSITY, AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 06/07/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORNING VALLEY FOG MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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