654
FXUS61 KRLX 210710
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
300AM UPDATE... DETAILS ON UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
100AM UPDATE... 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRIER TODAY, BUT A POTENT SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL,
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- 2) SEASONABLE WARMTH TAKES BACK OVER MID WEEK AMID DRIER
WEATHER. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR OUR SUNDAY AFTER MORNING VALLEY
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS DISSIPATE. A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA CURRENTLY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOWLANDS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST SOMETIME
TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON A WEST TO EAST ONSET OF RAINFALL, BUT
THE TIMING IS STILL OF VARIANCE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
SHOW AN ARRIVAL BETWEEN 12AM AND 2AM, WHILE THE EURO SLUGS ALONG
ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND THAT TIME FRAME BEFORE IT
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE BULK OF WEST VIRGINIA LATER ON.
THE NAM BRINGS A QUICK MOVING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN LOWLAND COUNTIES EARLY
BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. A SECOND ROUND SWEEPS UP FROM THE SOUTH
MID-MORNING ON MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST TRACK OF RAINFALL WILL
BE. NONETHELESS, ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE HAS BETWEEN 0.50" AND 1.50" OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
MATCHES UP WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.00". THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS. WPC HAS A THE MID-OHIO VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE MODELS BECOME MORE COHESIVE.
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR MONDAY AS
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2,000 J/KG ARE MODELED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES. THE
AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK JUST TO
OUR EAST. ONCE AGAIN, MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SEVERITY,
TIMING, OR LOCATION OF THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING, MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, DRIER WEATHER IS
IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LESS WARM AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE LESS HUMID. THIS
DRIER SPELL WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOW TO MID
80S IN STORE MANY DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND SOME LIGHTNING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM THIS MORNING, AFTER THE SHOWERS PASS. EXPECTING THE LOWEST
VIS RESTRICTIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND POSSIBLY AT CRW WHERE
IFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE. SCT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY IMPEDE
FOG FROM BEING TOO DENSE ELSEWHERE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY ~13Z AND WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TODAY WITH SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN
4,500 AND 20,000 FEET AGL.
SW'RLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH A W'RLY BIAS IS MORE
PROBABLE IN DIRECTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS EXITING MAY VARY SOME. RESTRICTIONS
AND LOCATION OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 06/21/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN DENSE VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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