075
FXUS61 KRLX 211755
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
200 PM UPDATE... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THEIR
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK
(MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT) BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ALSO, 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
550 AM UPDATE... SPS ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AND 12Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION
300 AM UPDATE... DETAILS ON UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
100 AM UPDATE... 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRIER TODAY, BUT A POTENT SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL,
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO THE AREA AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- 2) SEASONABLE WARMTH TAKES BACK OVER MID WEEK AMID DRIER
WEATHER. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
550 AM UPDATE... AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MID-OHIO VALLEY, INCLUDING
MANY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER RAINFALL EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE WEBCAMS AS WELL AS GOES-19 NIGHT FOG CHANNEL
SHOW DENSE FOG ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THESE LOCATIONS. ASOS
REPORTS FROM HTS AND PKB SHOW VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A MILE TO ONE
HALF OF A MILE IN THESE AREAS.
300 AM UPDATE...
DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR OUR SUNDAY AFTER MORNING VALLEY
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS DISSIPATE. A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA CURRENTLY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOWLANDS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST SOMETIME
TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON A WEST TO EAST ONSET OF RAINFALL, BUT
THE TIMING IS STILL OF VARIANCE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
SHOW AN ARRIVAL BETWEEN 12AM AND 2AM, WHILE THE EURO SLUGS ALONG
ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND THAT TIME FRAME BEFORE IT
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE BULK OF WEST VIRGINIA LATER ON.
THE NAM BRINGS A QUICK MOVING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN LOWLAND COUNTIES EARLY
BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM. A SECOND ROUND SWEEPS UP FROM THE SOUTH
MID-MORNING ON MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST TRACK OF RAINFALL WILL
BE. NONETHELESS, ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE HAS BETWEEN 0.50" AND 1.50" OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
MATCHES UP WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2.00". THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. WPC HAS A THE MID-OHIO VALLEY IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED ONCE MODELS BECOME MORE COHESIVE.
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR MONDAY AS
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AROUND 2,000 J/KG ARE MODELED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES. THE
AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK JUST TO
OUR EAST. ONCE AGAIN, MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SEVERITY,
TIMING, OR LOCATION OF THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING, MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, DRIER WEATHER IS
IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LESS WARM AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE LESS HUMID. THIS
DRIER SPELL WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOW TO MID
80S IN STORE MANY DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITION PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. AN INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY BEFORE DAWN, WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS.
A SECOND LINE OR AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
SPROUT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY AROUND DAYBREAK AND VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE.
LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT, AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BEFORE SURFACE
FLOW PICKS UP AND STARTS BECOMING GUSTY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FOG OVERNIGHT FORMATION TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR EXPECTED IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN DENSE VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...TRM
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