634
FXUS61 KRLX 211825
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK (MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT) BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A POTENT SYSTEM FOR THE START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BRINGS
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS,
AS WELL AS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS, TO THE AREA AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- 2) DRIER, COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK, BEFORE ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMID
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A NICE, WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER, ROLLS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT, AND THEN ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET MAX OF 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY, BEFORE MIXING THROUGH TO ABOUT 40 KTS AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. THIS BRINGS AN AREA
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES AND H85 THETA E
VALUES TO AROUND 340 K INTO THE FORECAST AREA FIRST THING MONDAY
MORNING, BEFORE BEING PUSHED OUT BY THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS EVENT. ONE, ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS DRY, WILL LIKELY CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING AMID 40-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE/THETA E FEED. THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
EARLY MORNING WARM ADVECTION ELEVATED CONVECTIVE THREAT, WITH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY MAKING IT
THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION, LOW LEVEL TURNING BENEATH
THE NOCTURNAL JET COULD PUSH THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER
INTO 1 TO 2 RANGE, GIVING RISE TO A MINIMAL EARLY MORNING
TORNADO THREAT.
CLOUD TOP WARMING SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING OF THIS MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING TO
GENERATE CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG, EVEN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN A
NARROW AXIS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF 40-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE REDUCED ON
ACCOUNT OF LESS/WEAKER LOW LEVEL TURNING, AND A HIGHER AFTERNOON
LCL, BUT NOT ALTOGETHER NIL.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS THEIR 2% UNCONDITIONAL
TORNADO PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT, NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, MONDAY , ALTHOUGH SOME CAMS INDICATE UPDRAFT-
HELICITY SWATHS IN THE FORECAST AREA THEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WITH BOTH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ROUNDS, ESPECIALLY
OVER URBAN AREAS OR SIMPLY AREAS THAT ARE MOST SATURATED,
PARTICULARLY AREA THAT ARE HIT BY BOTH THE EARLY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ROUNDS.
THE END OF THE CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
COINCIDENT WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A THIRD LINE OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A DRY, TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR MIDWEEK, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EARLY MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG.
THE NEXT SYSTEMS BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY STARTING
EARLY. WHILE CENTRAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS CHANCE GOING RIGHT ON
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, CONVECTION MAY BE OF THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
VARIETY ON FRIDAY, AND THE PATTERN MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. THERE IS MODEL VARIABILITY AS TO THE LOCATION AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT THAT TIME, BUT A
REMNANT FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA, AND THE RIDGE EITHER NOT
QUITE OVER THE AREA OR NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH/DIRTY, MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS EASE INTO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THEN EVEN ABOVE NORMAL HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITION PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. AN INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY BEFORE DAWN, WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS.
A SECOND LINE OR AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
SPROUT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY AROUND DAYBREAK AND VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE.
LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT, AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BEFORE SURFACE
FLOW PICKS UP AND STARTS BECOMING GUSTY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FOG OVERNIGHT FORMATION TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAY BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR EXPECTED IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN DENSE VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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