426
FXUS61 KRLX 220813
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
413 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 8 AM TODAY UNTIL 11 PM. IN ADDITION, THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HAS BEEN EXPANDED. FINALLY, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A POTENT SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER
BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS, AS WELL AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY.
- 2) DRIER, COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK, BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AMID INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA, WILL BE
THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BRINGING
MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. AT PRESENT, AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA, WITH THE COLD FRONT
OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH MORE ACTIVITY OFF TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AMID PROGGED MIXED-
LAYER CAPE OF 1,000-1,500 J/KG, ALONG WITH FAIRLY ROBUST
KINEMATIC FIELDS FOR LATE JUNE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT APPROACHES, WITH THE SPC HAVING MOST LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE A MARGINAL RISK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. FREEZING LEVELS OF 13-14 KFT SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL
THREAT, ALTHOUGH A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE
GIVEN PROGGED 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. ANY SEVERE THREAT
QUICKLY TAPERS BY LATE EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. PW VALUES OF 1.7-2.0"+ WILL
FACILITATE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. GUIDANCE VARIES IN TERMS OF
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT ALL CAMS DEPICT
CORRIDORS OF 1-2"+ OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WITH
EMBEDDED HIGHER AMOUNTS. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CWA, AND AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM
8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS LAST WEEK WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANY TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AMID BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY TAPER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY LINGERING TO DAWN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A DRY, TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR MIDWEEK, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EARLY MORNING DENSE VALLEY FOG.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD COURTESY OF A MEANDERING FRONT THAT WILL SETUP (MORE OR
LESS) EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO A DEGREE, WITH PERIODIC MID/UPPER LEVEL
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES ENHANCING RAINFALL
ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (LATE WEEKEND) AS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD.
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD AMID GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, GENERALLY WEAKENING
AS IT DOES SO. BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE LINE, PRIMARILY IN THE HTS AREA.
FOLLOWING THIS, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
THEREAFTER BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG,
HEAVY STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN
SOME AREAS, ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH, PRIMARILY IMPACTING
PKB. CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER INTO IFR/LIFR LATE MONDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING AMID PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CURRENTLY WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AREA-
WIDE BY MID-MORNING, THEN REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SURFACE FLOW THEN VEERS TO NNW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, HIGHER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION, MARGINAL LLWS COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS (PREDAWN)
AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
BETTER MIXING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACT FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 06/22/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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