590
FXUS61 KRLX 231751
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
621 AM UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELED THE REST OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO EXIT THE AREA. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COALFIELDS FROM 3-5" OF RAIN THAT FELL
LATE MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG A CROSSING COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING,
WITH DRY WEATHER AREA-WIDE BY MID THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
- 2) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMID INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING AHEAD OF AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS
IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. RAIN RATES HAVE STEADILY DECREASED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 0.5-0.6"/HR IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN THE FRONT NOT YET
SOUTH OF LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED 2-5" OF RAIN LATE MONDAY
EVENING (SOUTHERN COALFIELDS - MINGO, LOGAN, BOONE, WYOMING,
RALEIGH, AND FAYETTE COUNTIES), WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES WOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED. AT PRESENT, FLASH FLOOD AND AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING HAS OCCURRED (NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HIGH WATER,
MUDSLIDES, WATER RESCUES, AND EVEN A REPORT OF A WASHED OUT
BRIDGE OR TWO).
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, WITH DRY WEATHER AREA-WIDE BY MID THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST
OF THE REGION. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY AMID A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH TOMORROW BEING
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE FOR LATE JUNE. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE
PROGGED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT, AND WILL BE DENSE IN
SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD COURTESY OF A MEANDERING FRONT THAT WILL SETUP (MORE OR
LESS) EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO A DEGREE, WITH PERIODIC MID/UPPER LEVEL
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES ENHANCING RAINFALL
ACTIVITY. INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME
STRONG STORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THIS TIME PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD (LATE WEEKEND) AS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AMID GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT RAMPS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW 90S CURRENTLY
PROGGED FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS/IFR STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BREAK UP
DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL, UNTIL DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LIFTING
INTO STRATUS/STRATOFRACTUS. OTHERWISE, A VFR DAY IS THEN ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT, THEN BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS IN
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H L H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...TRM
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