305
FXUS61 KRLX 231926
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ZEITGEIST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE AREA GETS TO DRY OUT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- 2) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMID INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
- 4) THE PATTERN THEN OPENS UP INTO A BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR EVEN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS,
EVEN AMID HUMID CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA GETS TO DRY OUT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. THE
CUMULUS FIELD, AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED MONDAY NIGHT, WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING
CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS. IN THE WAKE OF ALL THE RAINFALL MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, THIS SETS UP PRIME CONDITIONS FOR RIVER VALLEY
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIKE LAST SUNDAY MORNING, IT
MAY TAKE UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE TO ERADICATE THE
FOG AND ANY STRATUS IT LIFTS INTO.
A VERY NICE DAY, WITH LOW HUMIDITY, PARTICULARLY FOR LATE JUNE,
IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY, AS THE HIGH CROSSES. FOG WILL BE LESS
COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, COMPARED WITH TONIGHT, AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW,
AND THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD. HOWEVER, DENSE FOG IS
STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT LEAST IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD HOLD MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
EXITS, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW, AND A PAIR OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS, MAY
EVENTUALLY ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT AT LEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL FOR LATE JUNE, WITH
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S, EVEN UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE COMFORTABLE, WITH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WARMER BUT ONLY A BIT MORE HUMID.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SORT OF TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
TRIGGERING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THESE GIVE WAY TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES TRACKING
FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLD FRONT NEVER QUITE
MAKING IT TO THE FORECAST AREA.
RATHER, THE MORE SOUTHERN-TRACKING STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
RIDING ALONG THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT, WHICH BECOMES A
WAVY, CONVECTIVELY COMPLICATED WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS, STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AMID ROUGHLY ZONAL
FLOW. THIS PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AMID INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
AIR CONTINUALLY OOZING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A LIMITED NUMBER OF
DAYS TO DRY OUT, FLASH FLOODING BECOMES A RENEWED CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CASE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUCH AS
WITH ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES.
THE COMPLEXES ACTUALLY SAG THE FRONT, OR THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
VIA THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
INTERFERES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MUDDLES THE PATTERN, WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THEN EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST REALIZED AT NIGHT AMID
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID, BUT CLOUD-RIDDEN AND AT TIMES WET
PATTERN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE EAST, AND CORRESPONDING TROUGHING
IN THE WEST. THIS PATTERN ACTUALLY THEN HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK, SO HEAT BUILDS AND PERSISTS AMID HUMID CONDITIONS,
BUT WITH THE MINIMAL IF ANY CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE-
DAY THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK.
HIGHS WILL REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY INN
THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH LOWLAND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S OR
THEREABOUTS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS/IFR STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BREAK UP
DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL, UNTIL DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LIFTING
INTO STRATUS/STRATOFRACTUS. OTHERWISE, A VFR DAY IS THEN ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT, THEN BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS IN
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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