472
FXUS61 KRLX 240537
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE AREA GETS TO DRY OUT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- 2) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMID INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
- 4) THE PATTERN THEN OPENS UP INTO A BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR EVEN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS,
EVEN AMID HUMID CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA GETS TO DRY OUT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. THE
CUMULUS FIELD, AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED MONDAY NIGHT, WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING
CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS. IN THE WAKE OF ALL THE RAINFALL MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, THIS SETS UP PRIME CONDITIONS FOR RIVER VALLEY
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIKE LAST SUNDAY MORNING, IT
MAY TAKE UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE TO ERADICATE THE
FOG AND ANY STRATUS IT LIFTS INTO.
A VERY NICE DAY, WITH LOW HUMIDITY, PARTICULARLY FOR LATE JUNE,
IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY, AS THE HIGH CROSSES. FOG WILL BE LESS
COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, COMPARED WITH TONIGHT, AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW,
AND THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD. HOWEVER, DENSE FOG IS
STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT LEAST IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD HOLD MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
EXITS, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW, AND A PAIR OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS, MAY
EVENTUALLY ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT AT LEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL FOR LATE JUNE, WITH
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S, EVEN UPPER 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER
SHELTERED VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE COMFORTABLE, WITH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WARMER BUT ONLY A BIT MORE HUMID.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SORT OF TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
TRIGGERING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THESE GIVE WAY TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES TRACKING
FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLD FRONT NEVER QUITE
MAKING IT TO THE FORECAST AREA.
RATHER, THE MORE SOUTHERN-TRACKING STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
RIDING ALONG THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT, WHICH BECOMES A
WAVY, CONVECTIVELY COMPLICATED WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS, STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AMID ROUGHLY ZONAL
FLOW. THIS PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AMID INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
AIR CONTINUALLY OOZING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A LIMITED NUMBER OF
DAYS TO DRY OUT, FLASH FLOODING BECOMES A RENEWED CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CASE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SUCH AS
WITH ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES.
THE COMPLEXES ACTUALLY SAG THE FRONT, OR THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
VIA THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
INTERFERES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MUDDLES THE PATTERN, WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THEN EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST REALIZED AT NIGHT AMID
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID, BUT CLOUD-RIDDEN AND AT TIMES WET
PATTERN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THE EAST, AND CORRESPONDING TROUGHING
IN THE WEST. THIS PATTERN ACTUALLY THEN HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK, SO HEAT BUILDS AND PERSISTS AMID HUMID CONDITIONS,
BUT WITH THE MINIMAL IF ANY CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATE-
DAY THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK.
HIGHS WILL REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY INN
THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH LOWLAND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S OR
THEREABOUTS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 6Z
THURSDAY) IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF VLIFR RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY
FOG THIS MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VA AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV, WITH CONTINUED EXPANSION NORTHWEST
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VLIFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR ALL TERMINALS BY DAWN THIS MORNING DUE
TO FOG. FOG SHOULD THEN LIFT/SCATTER BY ~ 12-13Z, WITH AREA-
WIDE VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AMID
DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU FIELD (035-040) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT ~ 15-16Z, WITH BASES GRADUALLY RISING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG THIS MORNING
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST AND BE LESS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY AT BKW, HTS, AND PKB.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/24/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M M M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L M L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M L H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG THURSDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER, THEN ALSO WITH PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...GW
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