247
FXUS61 KRLX 240748
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST, WITH ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRIMARY CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE AREA GETS TO DRY OUT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG THURSDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
- 2) A ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AMID INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
- 4) THE PATTERN THEN OPENS UP INTO A BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR EVEN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS,
EVEN AMID HUMID CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY, WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA INTO THURSDAY, PROVIDING WELCOMED DRY CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE. MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AT PRESENT, COURTESY OF
AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, HAVE FACILITATED ROBUST
RADIATIONAL COOLING THUS FAR OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH STEADILY
DEVELOPING VALLEY FOG. VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AND IS DENSE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. FURTHER EXPANSION NORTH AND WEST IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY DAWN. A SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL MAY BE WARRANTED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S, AND EVEN 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THE TYPICAL LOWLAND COLD SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS, WHILE
UPPER 60S AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
PROGGED COURTESY OF A DIURNAL CU FIELD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR LATE
JUNE, BUT OVERALL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
WIDESPREAD FOG THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD COURTESY OF A MEANDERING FRONT THAT APPROACHES LATE
THURSDAY VIA A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN MORE OR LESS
MEANDERING ANYWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MAINTAINS AN
EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION, BEFORE STEADILY AMPLIFYING/BUILDING
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FINALLY LIFTS THE BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AS LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
BEGINS IN EARNEST LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH
PERIODIC CROSSING MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND DIURNAL HEATING
ENHANCING ACTIVITY AT TIMES. GIVEN PROGGED PWAT VALUES OF
1.7-2.0"+, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AT TIMES, AND
RELATIVELY MODEST STEERING FLOW, THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
PERIOD WILL TREND TOWARDS HYDRO AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL), AND BE
GREATLY TIED TO THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, BUT AT PRESENT
KINEMATIC FIELDS LOOK GENERALLY MODEST DURING THE TIMEFRAME,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH HEAVY STORMS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY REMAINS THAT A STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (OR
EVEN SUNDAY), BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND AT TIMES STRONG STORMS, WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS NEEDING
REFINED AS TIME GOES ON. AFTER LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY
DECREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AMID STEADILY INCREASING HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE
CWA. THIS PATTERN THEN GENERALLY HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR HEAT TO BUILD AMID HUMID CONDITIONS. WHILE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED, MODERATE TO
HIGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL
GIVEN SMALLER SCALE FORCING VIA THE TERRAIN EFFECTS TYPICAL OF
THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY
IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH LOWLAND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER 90S OR HIGHER
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 6Z
THURSDAY) IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF VLIFR RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY
FOG THIS MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VA AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV, WITH CONTINUED EXPANSION NORTHWEST
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. VLIFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR ALL TERMINALS BY DAWN THIS MORNING DUE
TO FOG. FOG SHOULD THEN LIFT/SCATTER BY ~ 12-13Z, WITH AREA-
WIDE VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AMID
DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU FIELD (035-040) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT ~ 15-16Z, WITH BASES GRADUALLY RISING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG THIS MORNING
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST AND BE LESS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY AT BKW, HTS, AND PKB.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/24/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M M M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L M L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M L H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG THURSDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER, THEN ALSO WITH PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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