962
FXUS61 KRLX 241738
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
HAVE ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST, WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRIMARY CONCERN
BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE AREA GETS TO DRY OUT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG THURSDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
- 2) A ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AMID INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
- 4) THE PATTERN THEN OPENS UP INTO A BUILDING HEAT EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR EVEN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS,
EVEN AMID HUMID CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY, WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA INTO THURSDAY, PROVIDING WELCOMED DRY CONDITIONS AREA-
WIDE. MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AT PRESENT, COURTESY OF
AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, HAVE FACILITATED ROBUST
RADIATIONAL COOLING THUS FAR OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH STEADILY
DEVELOPING VALLEY FOG. VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AND IS DENSE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. FURTHER EXPANSION NORTH AND WEST IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY DAWN. A SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL MAY BE WARRANTED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LOWS WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S, AND EVEN 40S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THE TYPICAL LOWLAND COLD SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS, WHILE
UPPER 60S AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
PROGGED COURTESY OF A DIURNAL CU FIELD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR LATE
JUNE, BUT OVERALL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
WIDESPREAD FOG THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD COURTESY OF A MEANDERING FRONT THAT APPROACHES LATE
THURSDAY VIA A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN MORE OR LESS
MEANDERING ANYWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MAINTAINS AN
EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION, BEFORE STEADILY AMPLIFYING/BUILDING
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FINALLY LIFTS THE BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AS LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
BEGINS IN EARNEST LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH
PERIODIC CROSSING MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND DIURNAL HEATING
ENHANCING ACTIVITY AT TIMES. GIVEN PROGGED PWAT VALUES OF
1.7-2.0"+, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AT TIMES, AND
RELATIVELY MODEST STEERING FLOW, THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
PERIOD WILL TREND TOWARDS HYDRO AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL), AND BE
GREATLY TIED TO THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, BUT AT PRESENT
KINEMATIC FIELDS LOOK GENERALLY MODEST DURING THE TIMEFRAME,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH HEAVY STORMS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY REMAINS THAT A STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (OR
EVEN SUNDAY), BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND AT TIMES STRONG STORMS, WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS NEEDING
REFINED AS TIME GOES ON. AFTER LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY
DECREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AMID STEADILY INCREASING HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE
CWA. THIS PATTERN THEN GENERALLY HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR HEAT TO BUILD AMID HUMID CONDITIONS. WHILE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED, MODERATE TO
HIGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL
GIVEN SMALLER SCALE FORCING VIA THE TERRAIN EFFECTS TYPICAL OF
THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY
IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH LOWLAND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER 90S OR HIGHER
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR 4-5 KFT. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO A COUPLE OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KCRW AND KEKN. IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE VALLEY FOG, WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS OTHERWISE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BENEATH
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT-TO-CALM AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR AT CRW AND EKN
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
TSTM POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THURSDAY,
PRIMARILY AFFECTING KPKB, WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH
TSTMS THAT AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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